Every TV channel now has people predicting the future, so I can’t resist doing that myself !
Here are 5 things that I predict will happen in 2009.
#1. America will shut itself from inside – President Obama will re-institute an inward looking and closed to world politics American foreign policy … like it was before the two great wars. Unless they are needled and dragged into war with another Perl Harbor or 9/11 … one can expect US to go to the other extreme of their current global police role … to disconnecting with international politics and getting into a shell. This will have implications to arms manufacturers, Pakistan, Iraq, N.Korea, Russia etc. and open up a spot for Russia, China, India etc. to have a voice in international politics.
#2. Document Syncronisation to leverage online collaboration – Document syncronisation just like with email with gain acceptance. With documents being available online-and-offline, collaborating and anytime download will be the primary thrust of online document management apps – rather than creation and editing. Online document editing and creating will always be a Plan B. It’s like with Outlook/Exchange email. Google will either implement this for Star Office with Google Docs or Google Sites. Microsoft and Adobe have made a start and will push it too. As ever, break thru will be from a new startup we don’t know about.
#3. Indian businesses to focus on customers and process – Indian businesses will make a real shift in mindsets due to recessionary times … to focus on current customer management and process management in it’s true spirit … as a way of life. The “We-are-like-this-only” style and seat of your pants expansion plans as “build-it-they-will-come” will give way to a more deliberate and thoughtful style of operations management. Thinking we will turn Japanese is expecting too much … but hoping for isn’t.
#4. Social Networking as a feature – Instead of just being a space of it’s own, Social Networking will become a feature of every major online consumer service/provider. Just like chat, blogs, video, photo upload and tags … started as independent and unique business of it’s own … and are now common place in every news site and consumer service fully integrated as a feature … the same will happen with Social Networking. Once upon a time a lot of people put up their web pages on Geocities … to finally shift to their own sites … having a presence in Facebook or LinkedIn or Orkut is similar in many ways to having pages in Geocities. If you think about it … Social Networking is basically collaborating as a community, having links to friends in a organised manner … every service can benefit from offering that to their users.
#5. Bypass the carrier – Once the operating system and the hand set get de-coupled for mobile phones … (Android is one of those things that signals the beginning of that process) … the next thing will be ways to bypass the carrier for services like SMS and short codes. De-coupling of Software, Harware and the Netware happened with computers … will happen for Mobiles as well. This process will begin in 2009.
Let me know what you think. What would you predict for 2009?